This Saturday night, rising superstar, Canelo Alvarez will step into the ring against future hall of famer, Miguel Cotto in the most anticipated fight since Mayweather vs. Pacquiao. For fans that scoff at the MayPac fight this past May, they will be more entertained in one round of this fight than every MayPac round combined. Both Canelo and Cotto are pure fighters, not dancers. Get ready for a battle.
Tale of the Tape
Canelo Alvarez is a superstar, just now beginning to reach his potential. He will be on the top of the boxing world soon. He has piled up the wins with 45 in 47 fights, and is only 25 years old. Young for a boxer to be reaching this kind of success. For comparison, Floyd Mayweather finished with 49 wins when he retired earlier in the year at age 38.
Canelo’s only loss was to Mayweather back in 2013. Canelo was a young 23 at the time, and fighting against one of the best boxers of all time. A boxer that was not even in his weight class. Canelo likes to fight in the light middleweight and middleweight divisions, Floyd mostly fought as a welterweight. At the weight in for that fight, Canelo looked sickly, trying to stay light enough to meet the requirements to fight Floyd. Many things were going against him in that fight.
Since the Mayweather bout, Canelo is 3-0, including a dominant victory over James Kirkland at Minute Maid Park in Houston. Canelo cruised to an easy round 3 knockout, seen below.
Miguel Cotto is entering the final stage of his prime. Generally boxers can stay great until their late 30s. At 35, Cotto is still one of the best pound for pound fighters in the world. According to ESPN’s division by division rankings, he is the number one middleweight in the world. Cotto has bounced back with 3 straight victories after back to back losses to Floyd Mayweather and lesser known Austin Trout. Canelo would be the biggest win he’s had since 2011 when he avenged an earlier loss to Antonio Margarito.
How They Matchup
The odds are close for this fight. As of Tuesday morning, Canelo was a -290 favorite according to Odds Shark.
Both fighters are brawlers and knockout kings. Canelo has a knockout rate of 68%, while Cotto has a 75% rate. They tend to do it in different ways however. Canelo has raw power. Cotto is tough enough to take lots of punishment, allowing him to stay aggressive throughout the fight. This is why since Cotto turned pro, 27% of Cotto’s knockouts came before round 6, while 72% of Canelo’s come before round 6. Canelo can knock you out with one or two punches. Cotto wears you down throughout the fight. His power does not diminish much, while his opponent’s does, thus the later KO’s.
If this fight ends in a knockout it will likely be Canelo early, or Cotto late. It’s tough to gauge what the odds of this fight being a knockout are. Cotto just doesn’t go down easy what so ever. Canelo has never been KO’d in his career despite his aggressive style.
Canelo Alvarez def. Miguel Cotto by unanimous decision
Alvarez is a better boxer in my opinion. He will land the majority of the punches, and would knockout anyone with the numbers he puts up, but not Cotto. Cotto will take the punishment and give it back to Canelo, but not in as heavy doses. Canelo will have his statement win, and the statement will be “Prepare for a decade of Canelo.”
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